In last week's slate of games, I went 10-6 with my predictions, and ESPN went 9-7. Overall, I am 27-21 on the season, and the ESPN predictions are 31-17. I've got some ground to make up, so lets get started right on Week 4 predictions:
Chicago vs. Carolina
ESPN Pick: Chicago 24 Carolina 17
Committed Fan Pick: Chicago 27 Carolina 17
I can't predict whether Cam Newton will throw for 400 yards in this one or 200, but the Bears are the better team and will face Newton with a solid defense, so I think they get it done here.
Buffalo vs. Cincinnati
ESPN Pick: Buffalo 26 Cincinnati 20
Committed Fan Pick: Buffalo 28 Cincinnati 17
Bengals QB Andy Dalton may be playing better than people thought he would, but the Bengals are just about where we thought they'd be. Which is significantly lower than the Bills.
Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns
ESPN Pick: Tennessee 20 Cleveland 17
Committed Fan Pick: Cleveland 20 Tennessee 17
Browns quarterback Colt McCoy plays much better away from home turf than at it, but I don't think that holds him back in this game. After all, through the first games of this season, the Brown's have their star running back up and running. The Titans? We'll let you know if we see Chris Johnson.
Detroit vs Dallas
ESPN Pick: Dallas 23 Detroit 21
Committed Fan Pick: Detroit 24 Dallas 21
Stretching back to games played outside of Ford Field from last season and this season, Lions QB Matt Stafford has a completion percentage that is at least 10 points higher than his accuracy mark at home. Combine that accuracy with the way that him and Calvin Johnson have been playing together and this one could get ugly at Cowboy Stadium.
Kansas City vs. Minnesota
ESPN Pick: Minnesota 17 Kansas City 14
Committed Fan Pick: Kansas City 17 Minnesota 14
Its hard to determine who's played worse so far, the Kansas City defense or Donovan McNabb. I'm hesitant to trust either teams offense as far as they can throw it (Yeah, bad pun.) but somebody has to win, and maybe Dexter McCluster finds the end zone this week. Maybe he does it twice. Either way, I'm done here.
Washington vs St. Louis
ESPN Pick: Washington 20 St. Louis 17
Committed Fan Pick: Washington 24 St. Louis 17
Rams QB Sam Bradford hasn't started off this season on a high note, and he knows it. I know he's got what it takes to win, and I know he'll show it to me and everyone else as some point. Against the improved Redskins defense, however, I'm gonna make him prove me wrong rather than hope that he proves me right.
Philadelphia vs. San Francisco
ESPN Pick: Philadelphia 21 San Francisco 10
Committed Fan Pick: Philadelphia 17 San Francisco 13
Defensively, I think the 49er's match up well against the Eagles, whether Michael Vick plays or not. Offensively, I don't think they cause Philly many problems.
New Orleans vs. Jacksonville
ESPN Pick: New Orleans 35 Jacksonville 13
Committed Fan Pick: New Orleans 28 Jacksonville 13
The Saints have such a potent offense and way too many good weapons for Jacksonville to have more than a snowball's chance in Hell in this one. Or a snowballs chance in Jacksonville, for that matter. Game temperature will be a warm and sunny 75 degrees, the only thing hot about Jacksonville these days.
Houston vs. Pittsburgh
ESPN Pick: Pittsburgh 24 Houston 23
Committed Fan Pick: Houston 28 Pittsburgh 24
My upset pick of the week goes to the Houston Texans,fresh off of a....loss? Yes, the Texans lost to the Saints last week, as Drew Brees finally caught fire in the 4th quarter to put the game away. The Texans, however, are a much better defensive unit this year than last, and Pittsburgh's offense is worse than New Orleans'. On the flip side, the vaunted Pittsburgh D is aging and has looked awfully human this year.
New York Giants vs. Arizona
ESPN Pick: New York 24 Arizona 20
Committed Fan Pick: New York 28 Arizona 21
Last year, the Green Bay Packers no doubt led the league in injured players, and still ended up winning the Super Bowl. This year, the first statement applies to the Giants, but it remains to be seen how good they can be without their injured players. Arizona has had issues taking over and closing out games they should win this season, but could be starting to figure out their issues and mesh together.
Atlanta vs. Seattle
ESPN Pick: Atlanta 24 Seattle 19
Committed Fan Pick: Atlanta 21 Seattle 17
Atlanta has been a surprising underachiever this year, led by the unspectacular play of QB Matt Ryan. This team has done some great things in the past couple seasons, and i'm sure they'll get back on track, but the question is when? Seattle is playing tough these days, as new coach Pete Carroll seems to be making positive progress.
Denver vs. Green Bay
ESPN Pick: Denver 31 Green Bay 14
Committed Fan Pick: Green Bay 31 Denver 14
Wow. Those guys must be seeing something I'm not because they have predicted a blowout Denver win. An upset I can see, but the Packer's have way too many weapons and skill players to get blown out like that. The only chance Denver has in this game is to get the run game going, and against the NFL' stingiest run team, that will be tough to do.
New England vs. Oakland
ESPN Pick: NEw England 28 Oakland 27
Committed Fan Pick: New England 28 Oakland 21
While New England did me a favor last week by letting Buffalo beat them, I'm not dumb enough to pick an upset against Bill Belichick two weeks in a row. Neither team has been good on defense this year, so expect a lot of fireworks, but don't be surprised if and when New England prevails.
Miami vs San Diego
ESPN Pick: San Diego 26 Miami 20
Committed Fan Pick: San Diego 33 Miami 14
This game looks like Week 1 all over again, when New England shredded Miami for over 500 yards passing. Phillip Rivers, very much an elite passer, could easily torch the Dolphins secondary all day long and essentially force Miami into trying to outscore the Chargers. Ain't gonna happen.
Baltimore vs. New York Jets
ESPN Pick: Baltimore 21 New York 20
Committed Fan Pick: Baltimore 24 New York 21
Last week, Oakland's Darren McFadden shredded the Jets run defense as Oakland rolled over the Jets. This week, they get Ray Rice, a talented multi- use back as well. I think the Jets might benefit from a Ryan brothers tag team this week.
Tampa Bay vs Indianapolis
ESPN Pick: Tampa Bay 24 Indianapolis 14
Committed Fan Pick: Tampa Bay 21 Indianapolis 10
Whether Indy starts Kerry Collins this week or the younger Curtis Painter, I'm not incredibly inspired by either one and what they bring to the Colt's offense. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, is stacked up with young and developing talent, and should be able to take control of this game.
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