Saturday, September 10, 2011

Fantasy Update: Who's hot, Who's not

Wow, what a great first game to kick off a new NFL season, after the turbulent and shortened offseason. We got  our first look at some players for the fantasy season, and with some other NFL news sweeping around the league, the fantasy ramifications could be widespread.


Here are a few players whos' value I see taking a bit hit:

Any Packers RB not named John Kuhn:  What did I see from the Packer's backfield in the Saints game? 103 yards total, with a 3.8 YPC. Ryan Grant, the "starter," had 9 carries for 40 yards to James stark's 12 for 57. Starks scored, although it was from 17 yards out, and when they finally ran inside the red zone, it went to John Kuhn, who had 5 yards total on the night. If the other  night was any indicator of the season, any of these three backs is of only middling fantasy value, as none will get feature back carries AND enough scoring looks. Kuhn has some value, but only as a vulture to take touchdowns in short yardage situations.


Marcedes Lewis TE, Jacksonville:

Fantasy owners of Lewis everywhere cringed when they heard about the release of Jags QB David Garrard. Then they held their breath, hoping the team has some sort of answer, some good reason as to why he was cut. Garrard was "inconsistent", leading the  Jaguars to believe that perennial backup Luke McCown is a better option. To me, this move made very little sense, and from a fantasy standpoint it kills  Marcedes Lewis. Of Garrard's 23 TD passes last year, 10 went to Lewis, as the two formed trust between each other and Lewis became the favored red zone target. McCown threw all of 19 pass attempts last year, so while he may look to Lewis still as a preferred target, I'm worried about his ability to get it to him, and if you own Lewis, you should be too.


Peyton Manning QB Indianapolis Colts

With the consecutive starts streak over, everyone is now switching their attention to when Peyton will be back and healthy again. Normally, a player who will be out as long as Peyton wouldn't be worth a roster spot, but if you don't have much else at QB, then you can't afford to drop him. Listen, all of his weapons are still  healthy. He is worthless right now, of course, but when he comes back, he will be able to utilize all of his weapons in the same manner in which he did before his injury.



Who's Hot

Relax, there are still plenty of reasons to be happy this fantasy season. There are still players poised for a big breakthrough, so lets go over a few of them.

Jimmy Graham TE New Orleans Saints

Drew Brees threw for 419 yards the other night in a loss. Those ridiculous numbers should make anyone owning a Saints player salivate. Graham is a big target, an athletic big man with good hands and good speed. Graham was poised to breakthrough this year and it is obvious that its going to happen in this Saints offense. Brees targeted him 7 times, including a touchdown strike, and if those targets and red zone looks stay steady, he could finish in the top 15 at his position. Pick him up.

Darren Sproles RB New Orleans Saints

Sproles showed New Orleans why he was a good pick up the night, providing a spark in both the return game and in the passing attack. He finished with a punt return TD and 9 catches for 70 yards. In leagues with a return format, he looks to have strong flex potential. He's a great pass catching back, and has good burst and elusiveness in the open field. If he is available in your league and the scoring is in his favor, pick him up, don't wait for someone else to.

Andre Roberts, WR Arizona

Last year, the QB carousel that Arizona used to get it through the season passed for 3,264 yards. Over 1,000 of those yards went to Larry Fitzgerald,who isn't on the waiver wire in any league right now. But someone who is? Andre Roberts. This guy was fourth on the team in targets and catches last year, and third in yards. However, the No.2 receiver is gone (Steve Breaston), and we wouldn't have Early Doucet taking that role, would we? Roberts will benefit immensely from the addition of Kevin Kolb, who will likely pass for 4,000+ yards. Fitz will get his yards regardless, but Roberts should easily have his first 1000 yard season this year.

Jared Cook TE Tennessee Titans

While the offseason addition of Matt Hasselbeck may not seem like a big upgrade for this Titans team, he projects to be much better behind a superior Titans O-line than he was behind a suspect Seattle one. He'll be looking to throw to spread the field for speedy Chris Johnson, and Jared Cook could factor into that. Sure, Kenny Britt and Nate Washington will be bigger factors in the passing game, but Cook is a big target who has become a factor in the passing game as of late. He's talented, and could be a deep sleeper for any fantasy owner who picks him up.

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