Week 4 NFL Predictions

 In last week's slate of games, I went 10-6 with my predictions, and ESPN went 9-7.  Overall, I am 27-21 on the season, and the ESPN predictions are 31-17. I've got some ground to make up, so lets get started right on Week 4 predictions:

Chicago vs. Carolina
ESPN Pick: Chicago 24 Carolina 17
Committed Fan Pick: Chicago 27 Carolina 17

I can't predict whether Cam Newton will throw for 400 yards in this one or 200, but the Bears are the better team and will face Newton with a solid defense, so I think they get it done here.


Buffalo vs. Cincinnati
ESPN Pick: Buffalo 26 Cincinnati 20
Committed Fan Pick: Buffalo 28 Cincinnati 17

Bengals QB Andy Dalton may be playing better than people thought he would, but the Bengals are just about where we thought they'd be. Which is significantly lower than the Bills.


Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns
ESPN Pick: Tennessee 20 Cleveland 17
Committed Fan Pick: Cleveland 20 Tennessee 17

Browns quarterback Colt McCoy plays much better away from home turf than at it, but I don't think that holds him back in this game. After all, through the first games of this season, the Brown's have their star running back up and running. The Titans? We'll let you know if we see Chris Johnson.



Detroit vs Dallas
ESPN Pick: Dallas 23 Detroit 21
Committed Fan Pick: Detroit 24 Dallas 21

Stretching back to games played outside of Ford Field from last season and this season, Lions QB Matt Stafford has a completion percentage that is at least 10 points higher than his accuracy mark at home. Combine that accuracy with the way that him and Calvin Johnson have been playing together and this one could get ugly at Cowboy Stadium.


Kansas City vs. Minnesota
ESPN Pick: Minnesota 17 Kansas City 14
Committed Fan Pick: Kansas City 17 Minnesota 14

Its hard to determine who's played worse so far, the Kansas City defense or Donovan McNabb. I'm hesitant to trust either teams offense as far as they can throw it (Yeah, bad pun.) but somebody has to win, and maybe Dexter McCluster finds the end zone this week. Maybe he does it twice. Either way, I'm done here.


Washington vs St. Louis
ESPN Pick: Washington 20 St. Louis 17
Committed Fan Pick: Washington 24 St. Louis 17

Rams QB Sam Bradford hasn't started off this season on a high note, and he knows it. I know he's got what it takes to win, and I know he'll show it to me and everyone else as some point. Against the improved Redskins defense, however, I'm gonna make him prove me wrong rather than hope that he proves me right.


Philadelphia vs. San Francisco
ESPN Pick: Philadelphia 21 San Francisco 10
Committed Fan Pick: Philadelphia 17 San Francisco 13

Defensively, I think the 49er's match up well against the Eagles, whether Michael Vick plays or not. Offensively, I don't think they cause Philly many problems.


New Orleans vs. Jacksonville
ESPN Pick: New Orleans 35 Jacksonville 13
Committed Fan Pick: New Orleans 28 Jacksonville 13

The Saints have such a potent offense and way too many good weapons for Jacksonville to have more than a snowball's chance in Hell in this one. Or a snowballs chance in Jacksonville, for that matter. Game temperature will be a warm and sunny 75 degrees, the only thing hot about Jacksonville these days.


Houston vs. Pittsburgh
ESPN Pick: Pittsburgh 24 Houston 23
Committed Fan Pick: Houston 28 Pittsburgh 24

My upset pick of the week goes to the Houston Texans,fresh off of a....loss? Yes, the Texans lost to the Saints last week, as Drew Brees finally caught fire in the 4th quarter to put the game away. The Texans, however, are a much better defensive unit this year than last, and Pittsburgh's offense is worse than New Orleans'. On the flip side, the vaunted Pittsburgh D is aging and has looked awfully human this year.


New York Giants vs. Arizona
ESPN Pick: New York 24 Arizona 20
Committed Fan Pick: New York 28 Arizona 21

Last year, the Green Bay Packers no doubt led the league in injured players, and still ended up winning the Super Bowl. This year, the first statement applies to the Giants, but it remains to be seen how good they can be without their injured players. Arizona has had issues taking over and closing out games they should win this season, but could be starting to figure out their issues and mesh together.


Atlanta vs. Seattle
ESPN Pick: Atlanta 24 Seattle 19
Committed Fan Pick: Atlanta 21 Seattle 17

Atlanta has been a surprising underachiever this year, led by the unspectacular play of QB Matt Ryan. This team has done some great things in the past couple seasons, and i'm sure they'll get back on track, but the question is when? Seattle is playing tough these days, as new coach Pete Carroll seems to be making positive progress.



Denver vs. Green Bay
ESPN Pick: Denver 31 Green Bay 14
Committed Fan Pick: Green Bay 31 Denver 14

Wow. Those guys must be seeing something I'm not because they have predicted a blowout Denver win.  An upset I can see, but the Packer's have way too many weapons and skill players to get blown out like that. The only chance Denver has in this game is to get the run game going, and against the NFL' stingiest run team, that will be tough to do.


New England vs. Oakland
ESPN Pick: NEw England 28 Oakland 27
Committed Fan Pick: New England 28 Oakland 21

While New England did me a favor last week by letting Buffalo beat them, I'm not dumb enough to pick an upset against Bill Belichick two weeks in a row.  Neither team has been good on defense this year, so expect a lot of fireworks, but don't be surprised if and when New England prevails.


Miami vs San Diego
ESPN Pick: San Diego 26 Miami 20
Committed Fan Pick: San Diego 33 Miami 14

This game looks like Week 1 all over again, when New England shredded Miami for over 500 yards passing. Phillip Rivers, very much an elite passer, could easily torch the Dolphins secondary all day long and essentially force Miami into trying to outscore the Chargers. Ain't gonna happen.



Baltimore vs. New York Jets
ESPN Pick: Baltimore 21 New York 20
Committed Fan Pick: Baltimore 24 New York 21

Last week, Oakland's Darren McFadden shredded the Jets run defense as Oakland rolled over the Jets. This week, they get Ray Rice, a talented multi- use back as well. I think the Jets might benefit from a Ryan brothers tag team this week.


Tampa Bay vs Indianapolis
ESPN Pick: Tampa Bay 24 Indianapolis 14
Committed Fan Pick: Tampa Bay 21 Indianapolis 10

Whether Indy starts Kerry Collins this week or the younger Curtis Painter, I'm not incredibly inspired by either one and what they bring to the Colt's offense. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, is stacked up with young and developing talent, and should be able to take control of this game. 

Week 3 Reflections: Games Scores and Fantasy Outlook

Always root for the underdog.


Ever since I was young, people have used this expression to cover a wide range of topics, from sports to politics to dating. Throughout my life, there have always been constant underdogs. Short men, office women, the human race in Halo, the Buffalo Bills and the Detroit Lions. Never in my time watching football have I seen a Lions team OR a Bills team do what they have done up to this point. The season is young, but still 3 weeks deep and with each weekly challenge, these two teams have managed to survive and, along with Green Bay, lead the league with a 3-0 record. Growing up with Detroit being the home team" kinda got everyone used to being the underdog. After all, Detroit in itself is in many ways reminiscent of the underdog in more aspects than football. All the years of defeat and the excruciating reign of Matt Millen sat over Detroit for a long time, and to see this team pick Detroit back up from its knees, dust itself off and show some pride is worth the price of admission. It just goes to show the impact that 53 guys, guys who aren't even all friends, can have on a city that desperately needed change. The Detroit Lions are putting Detroit back on the map this year, and they're doing it by playing good football.


Alright, off of my soapbox there and on to the weekend summary. There were some exciting games this weekend, nothing to write home about per se, but the Lions and Bills both stayed undefeated, the Redskins failed to walk the walk after spending all week talking the talk, and we all got to point and laugh at the Bengals-49er's game that looked more like a special teams practice than an NFL game.

Mama was right,I should've been a punter

Who's for Real

Buffalo Bills: With a team full of underrated talent and largely unknown players, Chan Gailey is turning heads by demolishing Kansas City and pulling off the comeback upset over New England. 

Houston Texans: This team is still underrated, but the way they played against the Saints should get them a little more attention. If they can rejuvenate the run game like last year, they are a playoff lock. 

Who's Not

Miami Dolphins: Staring at an 0-3 record, the Dolphins have one bright spot, rookie RB Daniel Thomas. 

Minnesota Vikings: Also 0-3, the Vikings have struggled to perform on the field, as Donovan McNabb looks nothing like his old self. 

St.Louis Rams: For all the progress the Rams made last year, they have certainly regressed this season, as they have struggled to put together a strong team effort in any of their games. 

Fantasy Pickups 

Daniel Thomas RB Dolphins: Over the past two games, Thomas has rushed 41 times for 202 yards, while Reggie Bush has 17 for 42 and two fumbles. Thomas has also performed just as well as Bush in pass catching situations.  Not the most explosive runner, but the feature back on this team. 

Darren Sproles RB/KR Saints: Sproles may be small, but he is the definition of the word explosive. Everytime he touches the ball he has the possibility of taking it to the end zone, as he did Sunday on a 30 yard scamper. He won't get feature back carries, but he can run and catch and return kicks, so he's a multi-faceted weapon.

Julio Jones WR Falcons: Has impressive hands and speed, and he plays with Roddy White. He won't get the targets of White (17 on sunday), but he'll benefit immensely from the defensive shifts to White's side of the field. Did I mention Matt Ryan plays in Atlanta?

QB Rex Grossman: Sexy Rexy has been performing well this year for the 'Skins, averaging 250 yards per game and regularly able to go well above that. There are certainly worse options at quarterback.

TE Scott Chandler: Ok I'm biting. The guy has 9 receptions on the year and 4 have been for touchdowns. Ryan Fitzpatrick is in beast mode this season, and Chandler is a guy he trusts in the red zone. (2010 Marcedes Lewis anyone?)

IDP Pickup: D'Qwell Jackson OLB Browns: Has averaged double digit tackles through three games this season, as well as 2.5 sacks and a fumble recovery. He is a worthwhile pick up in IDP leagues if he is available. 

Equal Exchange

A list of players I would drop If you own them, followed by a list of guys I'd add if you don't. 

Drop List: QB Matt Cassel, QB Donovan McNabb, RB Reggie Bush, TE Marcedes Lewis, WR Brandon Lloyd, FB Mike Tolbert (well that was a fun trip), WR Mike Williams (Seattle version), TE Zack Miller, QB Tavaris Jackson, WR Donald Driver, WR Hines Ward, WR Roy Williams, RB Ronnie Brown, TE Brent Celek, TE Lance Kendricks, TE Kellen Winslow Jr., RB DeAngelo Williams

Add List: WR Victor Cruz,QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, WR Eric Decker, RB Willis McGahee, RB Dexter McCluster, RB Jonathan Stewart, WR Torrey Smith (risky*), TE Scott Chandler, TE Fred Davis, TE Greg Olsen, WR/KR Antonio Brown, RB Cadillac Williams, TE Ed Dickson, QB Cam Newton, WR Michael Jenkins. WR Nate Washington. 

Week 3 predictions

Well here we are, on the verge of week 3 in the NFL season already. Man, time sure does fly when you're enjoying football. So looking back on last weeks predictions, I went  9-7, putting me at a 17-15 record for the year so far. ESPN's predictions were more accurate, going 12-4 and raising their overall record to 22-10. In week 3, our predictions are as follows:


Green Bay vs. Chicago
ESPN Pick: Chicago 23 Green Bay 21
Committed Fan Pick: Chicago 24 Green Bay 21

A lot of offensive line problems for the Bears, but if they can protect Cutler from the pass rush in this game, I have to like the home team's odds in what is always a close divisional game.


Atlanta vs Tampa Bay
ESPN Pick: Atlanta 21 Tampa Bay 20
Committed Fan Pick: Atlanta 24 Tampa Bay 14

In an NFC South division game, I expect a tough effort from both teams, however Atlanta should gain the edge against the young Bucs defensive squad.


New England vs. Buffalo
ESPN Pick: New England 31 Buffalo 26
Committed Fan Pick: Buffalo 31 New England 29

My upset pick of the week, I pick a red hot Bills squad to get their first win against the Patriots since 2003. New England is weak against the pass, and Ryan Fitzpatrick will exploit that weakness to get the win.


Cincinnati vs. San Francisco
ESPN Pick: Cincinnati 17 San Francisco 10 
Committed Fan Pick: Cincinnati 24 San Francisco 13

Bengals get the run game going, and QB Andy Dalton handles the ball well as the Bengals get their second win of the season.


Miami vs. Cleveland
ESPN Pick: Cleveland 24 Miami 20 
Committed Fan Pick: Cleveland 24 Miami 13

Peyton Hillis runs up, over, around and through the Fins defense as Cleveland coasts to the win in an easy fashion.


Tennessee vs. Denver
ESPN Pick: Tennessee 24 Denver 19
Committed Fan Pick: Tennessee 24 Denver 21


The Titans showed they could play without Chris Johnson up to this point, and against the Broncos, we should see him return to form again. Combined with the passing game, and the team should handle the Broncos this week.


Detroit vs. Minnesota
ESPN Pick: Minnesota 23 Detroit 22
Committed Fan Pick: Detroit 34 Minnesota 24

Detroit's explosive offense will have little trouble with Minnesota, forcing them to throw early from behind and limit their best offensive weapon, Adrian Peterson.


New Orleans vs Houston
ESPN Pick: New Orleans 27 Houston 24 
Committed Fan Pick: New Orleans 27 Houston 21

This Houston team is an underrated squad this year and should win the AFC South. However, they aren't THAT good, and this game against the NFC South powerhouse Saints should show that reality.


Philadelphia vs New York (Giants)
ESPN Pick: Philadelphia 23 New York 20 
Committed Fan Pick:  Philadelphia 27 New York 21

Several Giants players want to face Michael Vick Sunday, several others are apparently injured, and Michael Boley is in desperate need of a better way to celebrate a touchdown. Not that he'll score one this week, as Vick and Co. take care of the football and victimize the depleted Giants secondary.


Jacksonville vs. Carolina
ESPN Pick: Carolina 21 Jacksonville 17
Committed Fan Pick: Carolina 28 Jacksonville 17

Think Cam Newton throws for 400+ yards against Jacksonville this week? Think Blaine Gabbert does in his first NFL start? Carolina picks up their first win by blowing out the Jags.



New York (Jets) vs Oakland Raiders
ESPN Pick: Oakland 10 New York 9
Committed Fan Pick: Oakland 23 New York 21

Oakland will have to play a very good game this week to pull off this upset, but the pieces are there to give them a pretty good shot.


Baltimore vs St. Louis
ESPN Pick: Baltimore 20 St. Louis 17
Committed Fan Pick: Baltimore 23 St. Louis 21

Baltimore needs to find some direction with their passing game, but an impressive Week 1 victory showed their true potential. The defense and run game can carry this team until then.


Kansas City vs. San Diego
ESPN Pick: San Diego 30 Kansas City 17
Committed Fan Pick: San Diego 33 Kansas City 14

Losing Jamaal Charles was a huge blow to this team, and without him on the field Sunday, things get just a little too tough for the Chiefs.



Arizona vs Seattle
ESPN Pick: Arizona 20 Seattle 19
Committed Fan Pick: Arizona 21 Seattle 17

Arizona needs help on the defensive side of the ball, but the offense has performed well up to this point. Kevin Kolb throws for 300 yards and a couple of TD passes as the Cards get the road win.



Pittsburgh vs Indianapolis
ESPN Pick: Pittsburgh 27 Indianapolis 10
Committed Fan Pick: Pittsburgh 31 Indianapolis 7

Last week, the Steelers clamped down on the Seahawks to get back to their true form. This week, they get the Colts, sans Peyton Manning. This one is over by halftime.


Washington vs. Dallas
ESPN Pick: Washington 17 Dallas 14
Committed Fan Pick: Washington 20 Dallas 14

Tony Romo has some injured ribs, and all of the Redskins players know about them. I don't like his chances of getting through the whole game, nor do I like the chances of Dallas winning this game.

NFL puts the kabosh on fake injuries.

Earlier today, the NFL took a firm footing on an issue that could have easily been abused and gotten out of control had they not been quick to enforce it. As a fan, I rarely approve of anything that Roger Goodell's administration has instated, but on this subject, I'm actually quite happy with their response.

In Sunday nights football matchup between the St. Louis Rams and the New York Giants, several Giants players, unable to substitute out because of the Ram's no huddle offense. abruptly dropped to the ground as if injured. This move allowed the Giants to get the right personnel out onto the field to stop the Rams and hold them to a field goal. Giants defensemen Deon Grant and Jacquian Williams were the two players who were "injured, however Williams got up as soon as he realized Grant was on the ground as well. Grant jogged off the field under his own power, and later returned to the game.

Rams quarterback and head coach Steve Spagnuolo both cried foul over the maneuver, which is normally something you see on the soccer fields of Europe, rather the football fields of America. The NFL quickly ended any thoughts about using this tactic in the future, issuing warnings of fines and loss of draft picks if it determines a player faked an injury.

I love this verdict. Personally, I think what the Giants players did was a bush league tactic, and i'll tell you why. In a day and age where many of their NFL brethren (including, I believe, a fair number of Giants players) suffer awful season ending  injuries, why would these two see fit to abuse and take advantage of the play stoppage system meant to aid injured players on the field? I think it was a rather classless move and was done in poor taste. Countless soccer teams have used this tactic as a substitute for real skill to preserve leads and win games, and the practice turns off more than a few football fans. I'm hopeful and encouraged to hear that this sort of behavior won't be taking place in American football anymore.

Week 2 Reflections: Newton, Charles and others.

Listen, I know the NFL preseason games aren't very exciting. A lot of people, myself included, could easily stand not having preseason games at all, and I'm sure life would continue on as normal. However, preseason games do have a few purposes. The most notable uses of this past preseason was the inagural tossing of rookie QB's to the wolves (a.k.a NFL defenses). This year, they performed basically to expectations, which were poor to begin with. Andy Dalton and Cam Newton failed to put up encouraging numbers, all the while playing against the 2nd or even 3rd stringers of four different NFL teams. Now lets look at numbers from a few quarterbacks in the league right now and compare their stats.

QB A: 37-56 (66.1%) 413 Yards 3TD-0Int
QB B: 62-88 (70.5%) 713 Yards 4TD-4Int
QB C: 48-75 ( 64%)  514 Yards 4TD-3Int
QB D: 52-83 (62.7%) 854 Yards 3TD-4Int


Obviously, there are several different ways one can approach this data. What we see out of QB A, TCU product Andy Dalton, is an accurate quarterback who hasn't taken a whole lot of risks, has thrown only the throws he knows he can make, and has taken care of the ball. QB's B and C (Phillip Rivers and Matt Ryan, respectively) are proven winners in this league, and while we see the yard totals, they also have had issues throwing away the ball to this point. And finally, QB D, rookie quarterback Cam Newton, who has two consecutive 400 yard passing games in his two starts in the league, but with 4 interceptions has proven he has been somewhat careless as well.

So what can we make of these numbers? How well do they translate to wins? Ryan, Rivers and Dalton are all 1-1 as starters this season, so its a bit early to tell how they will do this season as a whole. Newton, however, has lost both of his starts, games in which he threw for 400+ yards each time. He certainly had his chance to win Sunday, getting out of the gate early on Green Bay 13-0. However, Cam Newton had no answer from then on, as Green Bay scored 23 consecutive points en route to taking the win away. So how does one throw for so many yards but not win football games?  Newton has made the Panthers one dimensional, a pass heavy team with no run game. The teams leading rusher is Cam Newton. I mean, you have DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart on the roster and the QB is the leading rusher?

Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning. All of these quarterbacks can throw for 400 yards in a game, every game. Why don't they? Because their teams have a run game. These quarterbacks win because they can make the throws they need to, keep interceptions to a minimum and keep the run game going. Cam Newton is putting up gaudy numbers, but his legacy will depend on his ability to win football games, something he needs to learn how to do in this new league.



Charles Injury looks bleak for Chiefs


Jamaal Charles left Sunday's game against the Lion's prematurely after landing awkwardly on his outstretched left knee. He becomes the third big name Chief to go down with the injury, joining promising TE Tony Moeaki and star safety Eric Berry on the IR list. Tough luck for the Chiefs. Todd Haley and his team are defending AFC West champions after going 10-6 last year. So far, they have been blown out in two straight losses, getting outscored by a margin of 10-89 in those two games. Charles has become a star for this team, having an excellent campaign in 2010. He rushed for 1,467 yards last year at a 6.4 YPC average, carrying the team and allowing Matt Cassel to get the passing game in order. Now, with Charles gone, the Chiefs will most likely look to aging workhorse back Thomas Jones for RB duties, which will in turn increase their reliance on the currently defunct passing game. With both their offense and defense down their best playmaker, Kansas City has a lot of work to do if they hope to salvage this season and defend their AFC West title this year.


Romo fights through injury to win.


Needles, scissors, steak knives, rib bones. These are the sorts of items that can puncture your lung and impede your ability to do; well just about anything. Tony Romo suffered a fractured rib on Sunday, which is likely the cause for the punctured lung he also has. Romo left the game for a time after the injury, but returned at a crucial time late to win the game for Dallas. Romo will recover, but the action went a long way towards earning him the respect he has not seemed to have from the media and around the league as of late. After Sundays game several Cowboys voiced their support for Romo, and he finally appears to have the full support of his locker room and front office.




Week 2 Fantasy observations


1. Fred Jackson is the feature back in Buffalo and an underrated fantasy talent. Jackson runs well and also is a threat to catch the ball as well, and if he is available in your league, is worth a roster spot. The emergence of Ryan Fitzpatrick as a reliable QB has taken defensive pressure off of Jackson and his numbers have increased because of it. He destroyed the Raiders defense this past weekend, which had been solid against the run in heir first game of the season.  Claim him as a free agent if you can or trade for him, possibly for sell high candidate Dwayne Bowe?

2. A.J Green seems to be profiting immensely from the success of Andy Dalton in Cincinnati. Green finished with a ridiculous 14 targets, 10 of which he caught for 124 yards and a score. Over two games with Dalton as QB, Green has 165 yards and two scores. Green isn't an every week starter until he is more consistently putting up these numbers, and Dalton is certainly a matchup play QB, but Green could be primed for some big games this season, if you are willing to risk an occasional goose egg on a bad day.

3. Roy Helu- Before the season started, I stated that Helu was one Tim Hightower injury away from fantasy relevance. Apparently the Redskins would rather not wait for that moment to involve Helu, as he received a third of the teams carries on Sunday. He rushed for 74 yards (7.4YPC) and also turned four  targets into 38 yards receiving, mostly coming on a big 33 yard gain. Helu is a speedy, explosive back who has shown some real talent.

4. Toby Gerhart-  A bit of a deeper pick here, but Gerhart is a tough guy to hate. He had some real gaudy stats in college, and I'm convinced that if he weren't stuck behind Adrian Peterson in Minnesota he'd be putting up some real good numbers in the NFL too. On Sunday, he touched the ball 3 times and had a big run and a big catch. Now, Peterson isn't known for missing games, but f he does, or if Minnesota decides to involve Gerhart a bit more in the offense, he's worth a look.

Defensive Matchups
Through the first two games of the NFL season, here are the teams that are weak against either the pass (P) or the run (R), or both. Either way, its good to know when matching up your star players to a favorable defensive matchup.


Oakland: P and R. See Fred Jackson
Kansas City: P and R. Eric Berry is on the IR. Enough said.
Tampa Bay: R. Two games. 300 Rushing Yards allowed.
New England: P. 700 yards allowed in two games.
Atlanta: 600 yards allowed in two games.
Arizona: R and P. 240 yards and 700 yards through to games. Ouch.
San Diego: R and P


Oh Hey, I didn't see you there: Jaguars QB Luke McCown didn't bring his A-game against the Jets and their top ranked pass defence on Sunday, going 6-16 for 59 yards, 4 interceptions and a 1.8 passer's rating. Ouch.


Back from the dead player of week 2: Denver RB Willis McGahee experienced his first useful start in a while Sunday, rushing for 101 yards in the Bronco's win. Since  a career year in 2007, McGahee has struggled to stay relevant in this league, but proved Sunday that he has still got it.

Week 2 Predictions

With week 1 in the books, we can all start to turn our attention to the upcoming week and the games it brings. Last week, the fellows at ESPN's Scouts Inc. got the slight edge on me, finishing 10-6 while my predictions put me at a mediocre 8-8. There were definitely some upsets and some surprising wins in last weeks action, as some teams put the "what lockout?" smack down on their season opener. Lets take a closer look at this week's games.


Chicago Bears vs. New Orleans Saints

ESPN Pick: New Orleans 24 Chicago 13
Committed Fan Pick: New Orleans 21 Chicago 17

I liked what I saw out of the Bears last week as they dominated a tough NFC South team in the Falcons. They had vicious defensive pressure, never allowing the Falcons to get into a groove. The Saints, however, have Drew Brees, a prolific quarterback who specializes in finding the open receiver, no matter the coverage.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Minnesota Vikings

ESPN Pick: Tampa Bay 21 Minnesota 17
Committed Fan pick: Minnesota 24 Tampa Bay 14

Listen, the Minnesota Vikings are far from being a well put together team. Donovan McNabb made a poor showing at quarterback last week, and failed to initiate the offense at all. I don't particularly like the O-line in Minnesota, but In Adrian Peterson I trust, and against Tampa Bay's young and untested defense, I think Minnesota prevails behind a big day from their star player.


Oakland Raiders vs. Buffalo Bills

ESPN Pick: Oakland 20 Buffalo 14
Committed Fan Pick: Oakland 31 Buffalo 28

This matchup puts two deceptively good offenses up against two mediocre defenses, and a firefight is sure to follow. The Bills seem to have found a pretty good QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick, and coupled with utility back Fred Jackson, the Bills could easily go punch for punch with Oakland and its 1-2 power running combo.


Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs

ESPN Pick: Detroit 27 Kansas City 17
Committed Fan Pick: Detroit 23 Kansas City 17

Matt Cassel and co. will be looking for a bounce back win after last weeks drubbing by the Buffalo Bills, but they will not get a pushover team to get it against, as the streaking Lions come to town. Detroit has the best D-Line in the league and can put a lot of pressure on a QB very quickly. QB Matt Stafford looked in top form last Sunday, as him and Calvin Johnson are finally establishing good chemistry.


Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans

ESPN Pick: Baltimore 24 Tennessee 17
Committed Fan Pick: Baltimore 31 Tennessee 13

The Titans played a close, defensive struggle of a game last week, without managing to come away with a win. They face a very tough test in Baltimore, who are coming off a destruction against one of the leagues best defenses last week. Tennessee will have to utilize Chris Johnson more this week than last, but if the Ravens get ahead early, they will limit what Tennessee can do with their star player.


Indianapolis Colts vs. Cleveland Browns

ESPN Pick: Cleveland 21 Indianapolis 20
Committed Fan Pick: Cleveland 24 Indianapolis 17

The Colts certainly don't have the worst QB option at the helm without Peyton Manning, but last week Kerry Collins almost let the team get shut out by the Texans. If not for a late Texans turnover, that most likely would have happened. The fact that I've never seen the Colts get shut out while I've been alive should make it obvious that this team is in dire straits. This week, they face the tough ground game of Cleveland and bruiser back Peyton Hillis. If the Colts can stop Hillis, they could give Collins a legitimate  shot to get them a win.


Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Jets

ESPN Pick: Jets 27 Jaguars 14
Committed Fan Pick: Jets 23 Jaguars 17

Both of these teams had to fight for a win in week 1, as both of them could have easily lost their game. In this game, new Jags QB Luke McCown will have to duplicate his accurate passing against the beefed up Jets defense, including shut down corner Darelle Revis. On defense, the Jags will have to slow down the run game and force Mark Sanchez to throw to beat them.


Pittsburg Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks

ESPN Pick: Pittsburgh 27 Seattle 20 
Committed Fan Pick: Pittsburgh 35 Seattle 14

I expect two things out of this game. (1) Pittsburgh doesn't lose two games in a row. (2) James Harrison knocks someone out cold in this one. Look, Seattle is on a collision course of destruction, where bad luck meets bad timing. Pittsburgh is angry after their week 1 drubbing and I fully expect them to let Tavaris Jackson know about it.  I expect the Steeler's D will be taking care of fundamentals this week, and on offense I see Ben Roethlisberger maybe getting some TD passes to go with the INT's he threw last week.


Washington Redskins vs. Arizona Cardinals

ESPN Pick: Washington 20 Arizona 10 
Committed Fan Pick: Arizona 21 Washington 17

Washington looked good last week, and I think they have potential as a possible Wild Card team this year, but they'll face a new look Cardinals team this week. QB Rex Grossman probably won't throw for more yards than Cardinals QB Kevin Kolb, but he could be most useful leading and organizing his team's offense on and off the field. This game could go either way, as there is alot of talent on both teams.


Green Bay Packers vs. Carolina Panthers

ESPN Pick: Green Bay 20 Carolina 14
Committed Fan Pick: Green Bay 24 Carolina 17

A lot of people underestimated Panthers QB Cam Newton going into last week, myself included. Lesson learned, with a grain of salt. Newton torched the Cardinals secondary for 422 yards passing, but faces a tougher secondary this week. Green Bay is a much better team defensively than Arizona, so Newton might find himself gambling and losing as he tries to replicate his success from last week.


San Francisco 49er's vs. Dallas Cowboys

ESPN Pick: Dallas 27 San Francisco 20
Committed Fan Pick:  Dallas 27 San Francisco 21

One of the more interesting match ups of this week, this game features to teams with something to prove and desperate to do so. Dallas needs to rally behind QB Tony Romo, a re-occuring problem just about every year now, and trust him to make plays late down the stretch. And oh yeah, he needs to actually do it. San Francisco needs to show life in an offense that relied on kick returns for half of its points last week. Unless Ted Ginn Jr. can bust one or two off every week, the offense needs to step up and produce some points.


Cincinnati Bengals vs. Denver Broncos

ESPN Pick: Denver 24 Cincinnati 23 
Committed Fan Pick: Denver 27 Cincinnati 21

In a matchup between Kyle Orton and Andy Dalton, I'm gonna take Orton here. Orton also has a better team behind him, and a more capable receiving corp than Dalton. If Denver can throw some disguised blitzes at Dalton and stand steady against Cedric Benson and the run game, they should win this game.


Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins

ESPN Pick: Houston 24 Miami 20 
Committed Fan Pick: Miami 21 Houston 20

This pick depends alot on the status of Houston RB Arian Foster and his status for the game. If he isn't playing, I think Miami slips past Houston. If he does, I think Houston takes it. But I have to like the Dolphin's chances in this game. I mean, who didn't get even a little bit excited to see Chad Henne go off last week? He was Henne the Hulk, roughing up New England's secondary for 416 passing yards.


San Diego Chargers vs. New England Patriots

ESPN Pick: San Diego 27 New England 22
Committed Fan Pick: San Diego 23 New England 21

With Peyton Manning out for the foreseeable future, this has got to be the marquee quarterback matchup of the season. Phillip Rivers could easily abuse this secondary, still shaky after giving up more than 400 yards passing last week. Tom Brady and Co. will do whatever possible to test the Chargers defense, and this one could easily become a scoring clinic.


Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons

ESPN Pick: Philadelphia 24 Atlanta 23 
Committed Fan Pick: Philadelphia 27 Atlanta 21

Another who matchup here, a must win games for both teams. For the "Dream Team" Eagles, a win against the Falcons could start garnering them some serious respect. For the Falcons, the game is a must win to avoid starting off 0-2. If the Falcons can't beat the Saints out in the NFC South division battle, they will have to try their best to secure a Wild Card berth, and that starts with winning this game.


St. Louis Rams vs. New York Giants

ESPN Pick: Giants 21 Rams 13
Committed Fan Pick: Giants 24 Rams 17

Both of these teams played a disappointing season opener last week, and that makes both of them looking for a rebound win. Two teams enter, one team leaves. Sam Bradford and the Rams are on their way to something special. But the Giants have already been there, and they have an edge in experience at basically every position. One glaring weakness is the lack of depth and skill at cornerback, which the Rams could exploit by using Danny Amendola all over the field at wide receiver.

Thoughts on Newton and others: Week 1 reflections.

With week 1 in the books, I'd like to reflect on some of the things we saw in the slate of games last week. Keep in mind that at any rate, only one game has been played by any team or player.

Alright, I was wrong when I said that Newton would not impress in his first NFL start. He impressed alot of people, including every analyst at ESPN and yes, me....to an extent. Newton did a very good job, that is for sure, but the performance was slightly skewed. Newton's 77 yard TD pass was more about the speed of Steve Smith than the excellent passing of Newton. Any NFL QB can hit a streaking wideout behind the coverage for a touchdown, considering that Smith was not even guarded at that  point. Take off those tack on yards and you're left with 345 yards, still an amazing number, but a much more realistic figure to look at. To go along with that 345, he had two bad interceptions, (one recalled by an off the ball defensive penalty against AZ) and a 66% completion percentage. I predict a lot of people will be worshipping Newton for the next week, but I can't bring myself to worship a great effort against a pass defense ranked 31st in the league last year, which gave up its best corner in free agency. Look, you can pass against the Cardinals. Cam Newton did that, and he did that very effectively. But lets see him replicate that against the likes of Jacksonville (17th), Washington (15) and Chicago (21st) before we crown him the NFL's best.

On Sunday I was able to mark an item off my bucket list, as I finally got to see the Pittsburgh Steeler's lose with the same spastic, desperate flailing effort that teams normally resort to against them. Yes, Jim Harbaugh's Ravens got out the gate early against the Steeler's and never looked back, cruising to a 35-7 victory. I have to say I'm even more impressed about this win because these two teams typically play very close games. Indeed, the last 12 regular season match ups between these two have all been won by a margin of 4 points or fewer. This could be indicative of trouble in Pittsburgh, but I wouldn't count on it.


MNF had a doubleheader last night, and while that in itself sounds like an enticing bonus for the fans, I have to say, a New England blowout could only be beaten by the Denver-Oakland game of last night for  the least entertaining game they could have shown. After both teams fumbled within their first few series, the game turned into an absolute sloppy mess. The two teams combined for 222 yards in penalties last night, enough yellow being thrown that I thought I was watching this program instead. During the game, there were 25 separate play stoppages. The biggest highlight of the game was when the iron legged* kicker Sebastian Janikowski nailed an NFL record 63 yard field goal as time expired in the half- and promptly proceeded to say he wasn't happy with it.

* No NFL kicker has a known metal appendage.

National Passing Week is over in the NFL game, a ridiculous slate of games in which the league had one 500 yard passer, three 400 yard passers, and ten 300 passers. A total of 663 completions torched NFL secondary's for 54 touchdown passes, a TD pass for every 12 passes thrown. The highest QB rating belongs to QB Ryan Fitzpatrick of Buffalo, with a 133.00 rating. With such a week concluding, it will be interesting to see if some of the victimized teams switch up their defense a bit. I'm looking at you, Miami.

Noteworthy Performances (that weren't by QB's) :


Darren McFadden RB Raiders: His 150 yards rushing on 22  carries was the most by an Oakland player in the season opener in team history. He had a 6.8 YPC pace on the night.

Haloti Ngata NT Ravens: In addition to his 4 tackles on the night, Ngata had a hand in 3 Steeler's turnovers Sunday, forcing a fumble, recovering another and tipping a pass at the line for an interception. Ngata's efforts helped Baltimore forced 7 turnovers out of Pittsburgh.

Ted Ginn Jr. WR 49ers: Ginn Jr. accomplished a super rare feat, following his go-ahead 102 yard kickoff return with a 55 yard punt return in the same game, turning a close contest into a blowout and sealing the win for his team. He also took a voluntary pay cut from the team this week, something not many players would even consider doing.


Oh Hey, I didn't see you there:  QB Donovan McNabb  started at QB for the Minnesota Vikings this Sunday and threw for a paltry 39 yards in a 7-15 effort, with one (short) TD pass and one interception. I'm not gonna say its the worst a QB will play this season, but I'm just not sure Derek Anderson will see much time this year.


Back from the dead player of Week 1: Panthers WR Steve Smith, once a fantasy stud, who had long been relegated to team distraction duties, went off for 178 yards receiving with two scores, including  a 77 yard catch and run after a defensive mix up by the Cardinals. With the possible breakout of Cam Newton in Carolina, Steve Smith may once again find himself relevant in this league.

Fantasy Update: Who's hot, Who's not

Wow, what a great first game to kick off a new NFL season, after the turbulent and shortened offseason. We got  our first look at some players for the fantasy season, and with some other NFL news sweeping around the league, the fantasy ramifications could be widespread.


Here are a few players whos' value I see taking a bit hit:

Any Packers RB not named John Kuhn:  What did I see from the Packer's backfield in the Saints game? 103 yards total, with a 3.8 YPC. Ryan Grant, the "starter," had 9 carries for 40 yards to James stark's 12 for 57. Starks scored, although it was from 17 yards out, and when they finally ran inside the red zone, it went to John Kuhn, who had 5 yards total on the night. If the other  night was any indicator of the season, any of these three backs is of only middling fantasy value, as none will get feature back carries AND enough scoring looks. Kuhn has some value, but only as a vulture to take touchdowns in short yardage situations.


Marcedes Lewis TE, Jacksonville:

Fantasy owners of Lewis everywhere cringed when they heard about the release of Jags QB David Garrard. Then they held their breath, hoping the team has some sort of answer, some good reason as to why he was cut. Garrard was "inconsistent", leading the  Jaguars to believe that perennial backup Luke McCown is a better option. To me, this move made very little sense, and from a fantasy standpoint it kills  Marcedes Lewis. Of Garrard's 23 TD passes last year, 10 went to Lewis, as the two formed trust between each other and Lewis became the favored red zone target. McCown threw all of 19 pass attempts last year, so while he may look to Lewis still as a preferred target, I'm worried about his ability to get it to him, and if you own Lewis, you should be too.


Peyton Manning QB Indianapolis Colts

With the consecutive starts streak over, everyone is now switching their attention to when Peyton will be back and healthy again. Normally, a player who will be out as long as Peyton wouldn't be worth a roster spot, but if you don't have much else at QB, then you can't afford to drop him. Listen, all of his weapons are still  healthy. He is worthless right now, of course, but when he comes back, he will be able to utilize all of his weapons in the same manner in which he did before his injury.



Who's Hot

Relax, there are still plenty of reasons to be happy this fantasy season. There are still players poised for a big breakthrough, so lets go over a few of them.

Jimmy Graham TE New Orleans Saints

Drew Brees threw for 419 yards the other night in a loss. Those ridiculous numbers should make anyone owning a Saints player salivate. Graham is a big target, an athletic big man with good hands and good speed. Graham was poised to breakthrough this year and it is obvious that its going to happen in this Saints offense. Brees targeted him 7 times, including a touchdown strike, and if those targets and red zone looks stay steady, he could finish in the top 15 at his position. Pick him up.

Darren Sproles RB New Orleans Saints

Sproles showed New Orleans why he was a good pick up the night, providing a spark in both the return game and in the passing attack. He finished with a punt return TD and 9 catches for 70 yards. In leagues with a return format, he looks to have strong flex potential. He's a great pass catching back, and has good burst and elusiveness in the open field. If he is available in your league and the scoring is in his favor, pick him up, don't wait for someone else to.

Andre Roberts, WR Arizona

Last year, the QB carousel that Arizona used to get it through the season passed for 3,264 yards. Over 1,000 of those yards went to Larry Fitzgerald,who isn't on the waiver wire in any league right now. But someone who is? Andre Roberts. This guy was fourth on the team in targets and catches last year, and third in yards. However, the No.2 receiver is gone (Steve Breaston), and we wouldn't have Early Doucet taking that role, would we? Roberts will benefit immensely from the addition of Kevin Kolb, who will likely pass for 4,000+ yards. Fitz will get his yards regardless, but Roberts should easily have his first 1000 yard season this year.

Jared Cook TE Tennessee Titans

While the offseason addition of Matt Hasselbeck may not seem like a big upgrade for this Titans team, he projects to be much better behind a superior Titans O-line than he was behind a suspect Seattle one. He'll be looking to throw to spread the field for speedy Chris Johnson, and Jared Cook could factor into that. Sure, Kenny Britt and Nate Washington will be bigger factors in the passing game, but Cook is a big target who has become a factor in the passing game as of late. He's talented, and could be a deep sleeper for any fantasy owner who picks him up.

NFL Game Predictions- Week 1

Well here we are football fans. The start of the NFL regular season is mere hours away, and I for one am looking forward to the first slate of games immensely. I mean, Saints vs. Packers tonight, thursday night football? Clock out of work early, skip your class, pay your bills tomorrow, because tonight, its ON. Lets start with our Thursday game:


Saints 28 Packers 24

An intense matchup of two marquee quarterbacks, this one goes down to the wire, but the Saints prevail with their passing game.

ESPN pick: Packers 33 NO 27

Now on to our Sunday and Monday games.


Atlanta 20 Chicago 14

A simple matchup of a great team and a good team, and the score will reflect that. Bears keep it close but don't pull it out.

ESPN Pick: Atlanta 28 Chicago 10 

Detroit 31 Tampa Bay17

Detroit rallies behind Stafford and lights up the Buc's depleted secondary as they continue their winning ways from the 2nd half of last season.

ESPN Pick: Detroit 24 Tampa Bay 17

Cincinnati 10 Cleveland 34


Peyton Hillis runs hard from the start and Andy Dalton doesn't keep the Bengals in this one. Cincy's defense struggles to make plays.

ESPN Pick: Cleveland 23 Cincinnati 17

Buffalo 17 Kansas City 27


Jamaal Charles keeps the offense rolling in this game, and the defense gets enough stops to get the team a win.

ESPN Pick: Kansas City 23 Buffalo 20

Philadelphia 21 St. Louis 17


St. Louis gives Philly a run for their money, but the Eagles overcome a jittery offense with strong defense, and shut down Sam Bradford to grab the W.

ESPN Pick: St. Louis 24 Philadelphia 17

Tennessee 27  Jacksonville 10

A happy (and wealthy) Chris Johnson runs rampant over a shaky Jacksonville team that never gets going in this one with Luke McCown at QB.

ESPN Pick: Tennessee: 21 Jacksonville 20


Pittsburgh 17 Baltimore 13


The rivalry continues to be a defensive struggle as Pittsburgh edges the Ravens behind a strong run game.

ESPN Pick: Baltimore 21 Pittsburgh 20

Indianapolis 21 Houston 27

Without Peyton Manning, the Colts do better than expected but still fall in Houston behind a big game from Andre Johnson.

ESPN Pick: Houston 20 Indianapolis 17

Carolina 14 Arizona 23


Cam Newton gets victimized by the Arizona secondary and fails to impress or win in his rookie start.

ESPN Pick: Arizona 27 Carolina 17

Minnesota 17 San Diego 24

Donovan McNabb gets out dueled by Phillip Rivers as the Vikings fall at San Diego.

ESPN Pick: San Diego 24 Minnesota 17


Seattle 24 San Fransisco 14

The Seahawks show glimpses of talent as they rough up the 49ers at Candlestick.

ESPN Pick: San Fransisco 24 Seattle 20

Giants 21 Redskins 17


The Giants survive a lack of depth at CB by getting after Rex Grossman with their D Line, as the run game carries them to victory. ( get it, carries? )

ESPN Pick: New York 20 Washington 17

Dallas 16 Jets 21

The Ryan brothers have their coaching duel, but Rex walks away with bragging rights as LT and the run game make the Cowboys wish they hadn't released Igor Olshansky.

ESPN Pick: New York Jets 23 Dallas 21

New England 34 Miami 14


The Patriots take this one easily, as Henne struggles to beat the Pat's secondary and Tom Brady has no trouble with Miami's.

ESPN Pick: New England 20 Miami 10

Oakland 31 Denver 21


Oakland gets off to a great start with the run game and never looks back, spoiling the return of QB Kyle Orton for Denver.


ESPN Pick: Oakland 20 Denver 14

The Worst of the worst: Top 10 worst sports injuries

I thought I'd do a little segment here to show a less glorious and less celebrated side of the sports world, the injuries. Injuries occur in a wide range of severities as well as many different locations on the body. Sit back and experience some of the most talked about and well known sports injuries of all time. WARNING: some content may be shocking.


1. Joe Theismann breaks his leg. 

2. Willis McGahee gets his knee re-aligned.

3. Kevin Everett fractures his spine. 

4. Napoleon McCallum almost loses his leg.

5. Shaun Livingston's leg goes sideways.

6. Allan Ray loses track of his eyeball.

7. Clint Malarchuk gets slashed at an NHL game.

8. John Terry takes a closer look at Diaby's cleats. 

9. Andrew Bogut breaks his wrist.

10. Greg Jennings breaks his F&*@ing leg!

(I'm sorry, I had to do it)

Happy Trails!

                                                                                  America's Favorite Babysitter

Good luck to Bengals RB Cedric Benson, as he begins a 20 day jail sentence stemming from an assault charge. While he should be back to play football again this season, he seems to have a re-occuring knack for getting into trouble with the law. Personally, I blame a lack of finger painting as a young child for his legal problems. Thats the only reason I can think of as to why he would enjoy being fingerprinted so much.